Bitcoin has failed to return to its weekly peak around $94,600, indicating the caution with which buyers currently view the cryptocurrency market. The main reason for this hesitance is the Federal Reserve meeting, the results of which will be announced this evening.

In the meantime, another disappointing aspect for the market may be Trump's new national security strategy, which does not mention cryptocurrencies or blockchain—despite his previous calls to make the US a global crypto hub. The strategy emphasizes the priority of artificial intelligence and quantum technologies for protecting national interests. It highlights the United States' intention to secure global leadership in the development of technologies and standard-setting in areas such as AI, biotechnology, and quantum computing.

Whether intentional or not, the underestimation of the cryptocurrency and blockchain market may reflect a traditional security approach focused on material threats and geopolitical rivals, while digital assets and decentralized technologies are still perceived as peripheral phenomena. However, ignoring cryptocurrencies and blockchain in the national security strategy could have serious consequences, considering their growing influence on the global economy and financing methods.

Moreover, the strategy's focus on artificial intelligence and quantum technologies underscores the recognition of the importance of technological superiority in ensuring national security. The US pursuit of leadership in these areas is undoubtedly justified, given their potential to transform all aspects of society—from defense to healthcare. However, ignoring cryptocurrencies and blockchain appears shortsighted, given their potential to undermine traditional financial systems—especially when recalling Trump's statements during his campaign and his promises to create a global crypto hub in the US.

Trading recommendations

Regarding the technical outlook for Bitcoin, buyers are currently targeting a return to the $92,900 level, which opens a direct path to $95,000 and further to $97,300. The furthest target will be the peak around $99,400, with a breakthrough at this level indicating attempts to return to a bull market. If Bitcoin falls, I expect buyers at the $90,300 level. A move below this area could quickly drag BTC down to around $88,200, with the furthest target being the $85,800 region.

As for Ethereum's technical picture, a clear consolidation above the $3,362 level opens a direct road to $3,474. The ultimate target will be the peak around $3,664, with a breakthrough indicating strengthening bullish sentiment in the market and renewed interest from buyers. If Ethereum falls, I expect buyers at the $3,233 level. A retreat below this area could swiftly push ETH down to around $3,126, with the furthest target being the $3,023 region.

What's on the chart

• Red lines represent support and resistance levels, where price is expected to either pause or react sharply.
• The green line shows the 50-day moving average.
• The blue line is the 100-day moving average.
• The lime line is the 200-day moving average.

Price testing or crossing any of these moving averages often either halts movement or injects fresh momentum into the market.